20 Years Forward: The Prediction is Diesel Still on Top – More than 90 percent of commercial vehicles are currently being powered by diesel technology. Look ahead to 20 years from now, and most trucks on the roadway will probably be powered by a combination of fuels and technology, such as by hydrogen and fuel cells, or battery-electric, or even renewable natural gas or diesel fuel. But for the foreseeable future, diesel will remain the go-to technology fueling the country’s truck fleets.
Predictions
According to analysts, diesel will still be tops by 2040, at least in regard to Class 8 truck fleets. Here are some takeaways:
- Bloomberg New Energy Finance says only 19 percent of the heavy-duty commercial truck fleet in this country will run on electricity by 2040, translating to 81 percent of heavy-duty trucks running mainly on diesel and natural gas.
- IHS Markit says 80 percent of commercial truck sales in this country will run on diesel by 2040.
- According to The Fuels Institute, diesel will comprise 65 percent of heavy-duty truck sales and 86 percent of the whole fleet by 2040.
- According to the International Council on Clean Transportation, only one manufacturer of a zero-emissions Class 7 and 8 truck are available today, with others remaining in pre-production. Heavy-duty zero-emissions trucks are expected to overpower diesel in terms of sales by 2040.
Of course, these forecasts will depend heavily on how well new technology in the commercial marketplace fares, as well as the price and availability of diesel and alternative fuels. Meantime, there has been a lot of progress in the way we reduce emissions, as well as how we consume fuel and how many greenhouse gases we emit.
Climate and Fuel Economy Benefits
Commercial vehicles have to adhere to strict fuel-economy and greenhouse-gas emissions standards, whereby more fuel-efficient trucks will do away with one billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions by 2027.
More efficient diesel trucks are making big strides in terms of fuel savings and climate benefits. Fleet Advantage says a new Class 8 tractor has a 15 percent better fuel economy as compared with a 2016 model, which reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Truck, engine and component makers are working very hard to further reduce emissions from diesel trucks to get them as close to zero as possible. The EPA’s Cleaner Trucks Initiative will set up new goals to do even more to reduce emissions of oxides of nitrogen (NOx).
Diesel trucks can operate on advanced renewable biofuels that are able to lower greenhouse gas emissions through the use of biodiesel or 100 percent renewable diesel fuel blends. When renewable diesel fuel is used, greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced by 80 percent or more.
Many fleets are already using these fuels, which is resulting in oil companies announcing their planned used of petroleum refineries to generate new supplies of renewable diesel fuel.
In conclusion, even with all the advances on the horizon, the fact remains that diesel technology will continue to stay at the top of the industry as it strives to get close to zero emissions in the process.
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